Loss Streak Probability Calculator
Losing streaks are not bad luck — they are a mathematical certainty. See exactly how often they happen at your win rate, and why position sizing is your only real protection.
This is not bad luck — it is mathematics. Every trader will experience these streaks. Position sizing ensures you survive them.
| 3 consecutive losses | 9.11% | ~ 1 in 11 trades |
| 5 consecutive losses | 1.85% | ~ 1 in 54 trades |
| 7 consecutive losses | 0.37% | ~ 1 in 268 trades |
| 10 consecutive losses | 0.03% | ~ 1 in 2,937 trades |
| 15 consecutive losses | < 0.01% | ~ 1 in 10,000+ trades |
| 20 consecutive losses | < 0.01% | ~ 1 in 10,000+ trades |
Why losing streaks are inevitable
Even with a 60% win rate, consecutive losses happen with mathematical regularity. A trader taking 500 trades per year with a 60% win rate will experience a 5-loss streak approximately every 97 trades — meaning multiple times per year. This is not bad luck. It is basic probability.
The formula
With 55% win rate: P(5 losses) = 0.45^5 = 1.8%. That sounds small — but over 200 trades, you expect to hit it roughly 3–4 times. Over a career of thousands of trades, every streak length in this table will happen many times.
What this means for your trading
You cannot avoid losing streaks. You can only ensure they do not end your career. The only protection is consistent position sizing at 1–2% per trade. Ten consecutive losses at 1% risk leaves your account at 90% — painful but survivable. At 10% risk, ten losses leaves you with 35% — a career-ending event for most traders.